Vehicle Heat Affect - The Climate Change Study Not Begun (Edit)

Urban Heat Index.  

Most nations have similar methods which take averages from stations over earlier periods in history. i.e. the USA have created a 'Historical Climate Network' of 1219 Met stations, add the maximum and minimum for each and divide it by 2 to get an average. They then subject it to rigorous quality control and to various other procedures to adjust for discontinuities listing met station moves, new observation schedules and new Instruments as the key factors. (page 2) Introduction http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/.../ushcn/papers/karl-etal1988.pdf

They  apply a Monte Carlo simulation or use repeated random sampling to generate simulated data to use with a mathematical model. With this type of linear model, you can enter the process input values into the equation and predict the process output. 

However, in the real world, the input values won’t be a single value thanks to variability. Unfortunately, this input variability causes variability and defects in the output.

http://blog.minitab.com/.../understanding-monte-carlo...

I  refer to the World Meteorological Organisation Section 3.2

KEEPING THE RECORD HOMOGENEOUS AND ADJUSTING CHANGES WITH DIRECT TECHNIQUES

"Changes in and around a meteorological station will lead to inhomogeneities in the data. So it is very important to prevent those changes from happening, at least in long-term stations, suitable for climate analysis."

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/wcdmp_series/documents/WCDM...

"Changes in and around a meteorological station will lead to inhomogeneities in the data. So it is very important to prevent those changes from happening, at least in long-term stations, suitable for climate analysis."

Using historical data which goes back to the late 1800's early 1900's through to today does not take into account the increased traffic, the variability in increases in traffic volume and micro variability of traffic daily. Therefore the base historical data used for  ground station temperatures will be flawed. In the 1900's there were no cars 1920's few cars 1950's more cars 1980's many cars and 2016 most cars. The older the data used forming the historical data the worse the error becomes in that  20 years of  heavy traffic volumes near stations is spread over over 100 years. 

This error appears in the Introduction of a highly regarded peer reviewed document which negates the accuracy of the rest of the document.  

The errors caused by the varying and increasing volume of traffic in city based test stations makes the homogenization of the data impossible and when we are talking 1/10th of a degree to claim 2015 The hottest year on Record or a Record heatwave in Adelaide. There is too much room for error to make this claim with a high % of accuracy

 

Observations Australian Data Not homogenised in real time. 

Recently in Adelaide, South Australia a record heatwave occurred as reported by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

"An extremely hot air mass has seen Adelaide equal its record of three consecutive 40 degree days in December (most recently set in 2007), with this record to fall tomorrow if Adelaide reaches 40 for a fourth consecutive day, as forecast."

BOM recorded the temps at Kent Town and it sparked my interest so I watched the temperature climb during the day, on their website. At about 15:30 I noticed the temperature drop and thought it wasn't going to make it. However at 5:30 the temperature rose again to 40.8C.  "Unusual" I thought "why would it do that?"

I checked if this was a normal trend and monitored the daily temperatures for a few days noticing the same occurrence, with temps cooling mid afternoon and rising again. For twelve days I screenshot the afternoon temperatures from 12:00 to 19:00 on the BOM website and the results are set out below. 

 

It is common at Kent Town for temperatures to increase after cooling late into the evening I would have thought that as the sun hit its zenith the cooling would have occurred at a steady rate. Thermal response theory tells us that 'Buildings do not respond instantaneously to fluctuations in heat input,' 

Urban Heat Island 

In 2012 the Bureau of Meteorology completed an extensive and dedicated international peer review, that review ranked the Bureau's procedures and data analysis as amongst the best in the world in which was stated.  

Whilst it did not affect their assessment as urban sites, it is interesting to note that of the four city-centre sites (Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Hobart), only Adelaide showed evidence of an anomalous minimum temperature trend over the 1910-2009 period. This suggests that either any urban influence on temperatures at these locations was already fully developed by 1910 or that anomalous urban warming was manifested as step changes, possibly associated with specific buildings or other developments in the vicinity, which were successfully removed in the homogenisation process. Page 81

From the BOM website

While considerable effort is made to keep observational practices consistent—and to keep a careful log of changes at each site—each change in methodology or technology can leave its mark on the record.

These include artificial changes in the record due to:
a shift in the location of the station (for example, from a post office to an airport);

a change in the environment around the station (for example a tree grows, a structure is built, a lawn is irrigated); or

a change in measurement method (for example, from a manual instrument to a recording electronic instrument).

Adjustments are required to correct for these non-climate-related influences—since they may create artificial ‘jumps’ in the data over time. Correcting these biases is a key requirement for compiling and then analysing long-term records of daily maximum and minimum temperatures.

The Bureau does not alter the original temperature data measured at individual stations. Rather, the Bureau creates additional long, continuous and consistent (homogeneous) records for locations across the country.

Traffic

There is no mention of traffic in the, best in the world ,data analysis practices used by BOM. The daily coming's and going's of increasing numbers are not considered to temperature  measurements.  Could  Kent Town observatory be affected by traffic. 

A six-cylinder 4-stroke cycle petrol engine is to be designed to de...(b.p) at 2500 rpm the bore / stroke ratio is to be 1:1.25. producers 74948 kJ/min heat. Considering a standard thermal efficiency of a vehicle is 26% a full 74% is emitted as heat through exhaust and cooling through the radiator or 55,461 kJ/min

If  100 cars surrounded a weather station they would emit a total of 5,546,100 kJ/min 1000 cars would emit  55,461,000kj/min. Mixing may account for a lot of this but how many cars would need to surround a weather station for it to be affected?  If those cars were increasing in number every year, would the temperatures recorded increase? 

Government of South Australia Traffic Volumes

Kent Town observatory at 25 College road is inundated by traffic. 41,500 cars / day 34,200 cars / day 22,600 cars / day. The amount of heat generated from these numbers so close the the weather station must affect its readings. 

The Britannia Intersection is located on the eastern boundary of the City of Adelaide, some 300 meters from the observatory and is the intersection of five urban roads; Dequetteville Terrace, Kensington Road, Wakefield Road and Fullarton Road (north and south).  This intersection lies on the main entry / exit path into the City of Adelaide from the eastern suburbs and is on the principal inner suburb ring route around the city.  

This busy intersection is identified as a Strategic Route, a primary Freight Route, a primary Commuter Route and a secondary cycle route.

It is currently the worst unsignalised intersection within South Australia when ranked against crash statistics over the past five years. Between 2007 and 2011 a total of 289 crashes were reported at this location, including 51 casualty crashes. 

Evidence of  temperature jumps occurring during peak hour traffic at a busy location considering the 55,461kJ/min/vehicle generated must be considered . Are the, peer reviewed, best practices flawed?

Sydney Observatory is located  next to the busiest road in Sydney, the Western Distributor Freeway that crosses the Sydney Harbour Bridge. At the point the observatory is located 80,000 cars / day travel along the western distributor and meet another 30,000 cars / day coming from Circular Key. Although an airier location the heat generated from that many vehicles could affect the temps if I am correct. 

ACORN-SAT

1. No recommendation for placement of weather recording equipment in regard traffic in their guidelines.

2. ACORN-SAT list these causes for homogenization of data:

o Merge: data from two different station numbers are being merged, with overlap.
o Merge: data from two different station numbers are being merged, with overlap.
o Move: a documented site move.
o Move (n): a documented site move, together with a change of station number.
o Screen: indicates a change or repair to the Stevenson screen.
o Obs time: indicates a change in observation time (most often the 1964 change at some stations from a midnight to 9 am observation time).
o Site env: a change has occurred in the local site environment (e.g. addition/removal of building nearby, change in vegetation).
o Statistical: a change found by statistical methods without specific documentary support.
o Statistical*: indicates some kind of documentary support which may be imprecise or subject to interpretation. This is further explained in the notes
field.
o AWS: installation of an automatic weather station; if there was an associated site move this is shown as ‘move’.

If the construction of a new building or planting of a new tree causes the data to be effected surely a constant steal wall emitting 55,461 kJ/min of heat / vehicle in ever increasing numbers should also be taken into consideration. 

Conclusion

It is clear, from my observations that the temperature increases are occurring at 'Peak Hour' and I suggest traffic may have some affect on the temperature readings from these two stations. If that is the case, how many in Australia and worldwide.  BOM documents,make it clear that no consideration is given to the increasing traffic numbers every year in the Homogenization process used and if, as quoted, using world class data collection methods this traffic pollution to readings must occur in other stations worldwide.   

It is also clear that the data used for the historical reference is made up of 70 years of very little vehicle heat influence around testing stations due to the heat generated from vehicles and 40 years of vehicular affected data spread and averaged over, in some cases, 100 years. 

Could this explain the hiatus as we move closer to a point where it is 50 50 as more years of Vehicle Heat Affected Data (VHAD) fills the mix.  After  approximately 2040 do the temperatures measured appear to be lower or stable when the number years of Vehicle Heat Effect (VHA) is greater than the years with little VHA in the average temps used in historical data 

I can find no reference or study which includes VHA on readings. Many on the pollution caused by vehicles, but none on the heat emitted.   

Of course this is only my observations. I would hope that in the writing of the blog and hopefully your sharing, we might be able to get the science reopened to begin a study on the effects of the generated heat from traffic on temperature readings.   

I feel I have built a case and would hope that research can be done, so we can build our utopia, with a little more common sense and without the rush. Only working together can we build a better future for all. 

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Comment by 上由 Leonard 李安 on 在February二月 4, 2016 at 添加的评论14:52

Darren, thanks for your feedback, and thanks for the daily observations link, however, it does not make my theory wrong. As I said this is a very basic observation by basically a very basic man.

To understand what is happening at those places, would require further research and, being true, only adds to the need for a fuller study.  Thermal response theory tells us that 'Buildings do not respond instantaneously to fluctuations in heat input,' So why are these centers also responding? 

Add to that that the recent 'record heatwave' for Adelaide did not happen, according to BOM criteria, at:

Parafield  

Adelaide Airport 

Mt Lofty 

It only occurred at Kent Town 

So I ask why did BOM gild the lily on this event, exclaiming it as a 'record heatwave for Adelaide' and not a record heat wave for Kent Town Adelaide. For mine, that calls into question any professed record in climate even the claim that 2015 was the hottest year ever. 

I will be watching Perth closely this weekend. 

Daily Weather Observations for South Australia

Comment by 上由 D Ray on 在February二月 4, 2016 at 添加的评论13:54

72 hours of South Australian BoM observations can be viewed here...

http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/observations/saall.shtml

Comment by 上由 D Ray on 在February二月 4, 2016 at 添加的评论13:52

Leonard,

That traffic close to the BoM site in Kent Town could be causing temperatures to stay up late afternoon is an interesting hypothesis.

The only problem is that other similar sites in the Adelaide region which are much less exposed to local traffic show the same pattern of temperature staying up into the late afternoon...Parafield Airport ( the site is located on the far western side of the airport well away form the low level of traffic and Main North Road) , Edinburgh Airport ( located well away from major traffic) , and Adelaide Airport ( which could arguably be influenced by Tapley's Hill Road traffic but well away from runway traffic).

The variations you see are likely a consequence of the variability in seabreeze influences across the Adelaide plains, and the weakening of this in the late afternoon.

Darren

Comment by 上由 Leonard 李安 on 在February二月 4, 2016 at 添加的评论8:32
Many are debating that it is UHI or UHIE. Most nations have similar methods which take averages from stations over earlier periods in history. i.e. the USA have created a 'Historical Climate Network' of 1219 Met stations, add the maximum and minimum for each and divide it by 2 to get an average. They then subject it to rigorous quality control and to various other procedures to adjust for discontinuities listing met station moves, new observation schedules and new Instruments as the key factors. (page 2) Introduction http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/karl-etal1988.pdf
 
They then apply a Monte Calo simulation or use repeated random sampling to generate simulated data to use with a mathematical model. With this type of linear model, you can enter the process input values into the equation and predict the process output.
 
However, in the real world, the input values won’t be a single value thanks to variability. Unfortunately, this input variability causes variability and defects in the output.
 
 
So once again I find myself refering to the World Metorogical Organisation
 
"Changes in and around a meteorological station will lead to inhomogeneities in the data. So it is very important to prevent those changes from happening, at least in long-term stations, suitable for climate analysis."
 
Using historical data which goes back to the late 1800's early 1900's through to today does not take into account the increased traffic and the variability of traffic from that time. Therefore the base historical data they are using to access if ground station temperatures are showing a rise today is itself flawed.
 
That this error appears in the Introduction of a highly regarded peer reviewed document negates the accuracy of the rest of the document and I return to my original point of discussion.
 
The errors caused by the varying and increasing volume of traffic in city based test stations makes the homogenization of the data impossible and when we are talking 1/10th of a degree to claim 2015 The hottest year on Record or a Record heatwave in Adelaide. There is too much room for error to make this claim with a high % of accuracy.

In English. For the historical data to be a good base the number of cars passing a station would have to be constant since the 1800's early 1900's but they are not.

Till about 1920 cars passed by infrequently then until 1950's more frequently the 1970's cars were 1 / family and gradually up until the 1990's when everyone had one and you would find four in the driveway. So in the historical data the effect on temp stations averaged out over 100 years is minimal. The longer the historical records for a station the worse the error.

When you use that against the current data the temperatures appear as an increase.

Comment by 上由 Leonard 李安 on 在February二月 3, 2016 at 添加的评论20:11
In a recent study by Georgia University it says

The urban heat island effect describes how the spatial configuration of cities, the materials in them (such as asphalt), lack of vegetation and waste heat can modify temperature."

It does not mention the over 100,000 changes a day happening near some met stations.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150918132650.htm
Comment by 上由 Leonard 李安 on 在February二月 3, 2016 at 添加的评论8:25

Many Met Stations today are located at airports and that would account for the lack of spiking occurring during peak hour.

However on further investigation I found examples which could create this scenario. Harder to pinpoint when it is happening without further research but could it be also affecting the readings, taking into account that the hot air is being fan fed onto the met station. 

Comment by 上由 Leonard 李安 on 在January一月 30, 2016 at 添加的评论10:10

Question (after some discussion) Australia only accounts for 600+ weather stations around the world and not enough to affect the figures.

Answer: BOM claim they are using world best standards. If so maybe other stations are affected. Look at London 

You can that on a cool London day the temperatures also rose at peak hour. 

Comment by 上由 Leonard 李安 on 在January一月 30, 2016 at 添加的评论10:05

I thought I would transfer some q&a that had come up in other forums so that those reading it would not ask the same questions 

Question: Urban Heat Island https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island#Global_warming

Answer:

Thank you Pete for continuing the discussion and allowing me to reply.

I explored Wiki reference and the references, which showed no mention of traffic homogenization in only that traffic was considered. Eventually it brought me to a document I had read but not included as the blog is long enough as it is.

The 2003, World Meteorological Organization 'THE WCDMP “GUIDELINES” SERIES'

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/wcdmp_series/documents/WCDM...


In it there is one referece to vehicles "Urbanization often leads to less green space
within a town or city and increased use of concrete and steel, more vehicles and industries,
higher concentrations of pollutants etc."

That's it! Nothing about what to do with that information no mention of vehicles or traffic, nothing.

In section 2.5.5 Homogeneity Adjustments it says "Therefore,
it would be essential to report whether any kind of homogeneity testing has been applied to the
data."

As I have pointed out in my blog, vehicles or traffic have not been reported by BOM as part of that process in their independently vetted world class method. It goes on to say

" then it would be a best practice to report as much of the following information as possible:

o Which elements have been tested for homogeneity

o During which periods

o On which time scale (daily, monthly, seasonally or yearly)

o Name and reference of the applied test or short test description if no reference is
known.

o Number of homogeneous/inhomogeneous records found within a network after
applying the test (how many time-series are homogeneous, how many have one
inhomogeneity, two inhomogeneities, and so on).

o Number of inhomogeneities found in each single time-series (free of
inhomogeneities, one, two, three inhomogeneities and so on).

o Length of the inhomogeneous sections found in each time-series and/or time of
breakpoints.

o Annual variation of the number of inhomogeneities in each record (number of cases
per month).

o Size of the inhomogeneities detected and the correction factors used to adjust them.

o Causes of the detected inhomogeneities in every time-series (abrupt shifts:
relocations, change of instruments/sheltering, change of time of observations, change
16
of observers, change of time of observations; gradual spurious warming/cooling
trends: like those related to urban effects, and land use/land cover change impacts).

Again not reported!

In section 2.6.4 Urbanization and land-use changes

" It is of greatest importance to collect all available information about building density on local and
regional scales, as well as on historical population statistics for the country. Moreover, network
managers should document other major land-use changes, like swamp reclamation."

I thought if anywhere in the guidelines vital importance would have been given to traffic flow here However traffic flow vehicles remain allusive.

In Section 3.2 KEEPING THE RECORD HOMOGENEOUS AND ADJUSTING CHANGES WITH DIRECT TECHNIQUES

"Changes in and around a meteorological station will lead to inhomogeneities in the data. So it is very important to prevent those changes from happening, at least in long-term stations, suitable for climate analysis."

In other words the more changes the more greater the chance of error. Vehicles in their 10's of thousands and at varying traffic densities, I believe, is about as far from that perfect observation requirement as you can get.

Further it says "Sometimes, just by keeping in mind how important homogeneity and unchanged
measurement conditions are for climate analysis, biases can be prevented."

It would seem to me that BOM claiming record heatwaves and then claiming worlds best practices for Kent Street and Sydney observatory have not even thought of that importance so clearly outlined in the 'THE WCDMP “GUIDELINES” SERIES'

 

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